HERD IMMUNITY -- DOES IT APPLY HERE?

 Our former President suggested that "herd immunity" would be the answer to the COVID-19 crisis.   Let's not hold our breath!

https://news.yahoo.com/white-house-embracing-herd-immunity-114339631.html

A word or two about "herd immunity."    

Herd immunity is a concept from epidemiology -- a discipline that includes the study of how communicable diseases spread.  

Herd immunity may occur when, as a result of a high proportion of immunity-conferring infection or vaccination within a community, otherwise susceptible individuals within that community may enjoy some degree of resistance to that disease     

When many individuals in a population are resistant to a communicable disease, the infection may have nowhere to go and eventually subsides.  (This is a huge simplification but it is the basic idea.)

You can read more about this here: https://www.webmd.com/lung/what-is-herd-immunity#1

Could COVID-19 possibly fit into this concept?  Let's look the necessary conditions for resistance.  At least one of the following two conditions must be present for herd immunity to kick in. 

1. A population with a high percentage of people resistant by dint of vaccination could enjoy herd immunity.  This is why the few people in a community who are not vaccinated against smallpox may be unlikely to get this disease.  As long as they are a very small segment of the population, they are likely to enjoy some protection by dint of the vaccinated population.

But we do not yet have a widely used safe, effective vaccination for COVID-19, so we can set this condition aside.

2. Unprotected individuals within a population having a high percentage of people who are resistant by dint of already having contracted the disease could enjoy herd immunity.  Some authorities suggest that may happen when more than about 60% percent of a population have been infected, but COVID-19 is nowhere near this.  (Click Here)  

Also, it may be possible to be reinfected with COVID-19.  (Click Here)

So it appears that this second condition does not currently exist.

Admittedly this is a gross over-simplification of the concept of "herd immunity" as it applies to COVID-19, but it appears unlikely that this concept is applicable at this time to the current pandemic. 

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COVID-19, BALANCED ON A THREE LEGGED STOOL

 Many public health issues can be viewed as balanced on the legs of a three-legged stool.

The first leg is the work of research scientists and medical practitioners making discoveries in their laboratories and clinics.  

The second leg is the communication of these findings both to health care professionals through professional media and to the public via popular media.  This leg would be reinforced, as needed, by the adoption of appropriate statues and regulations.  

The third leg is the adoption of these findings by willing public. This three legged stool has supported many public health campaigns, including smallpox polio and AIDS.  But in the case of COVID-19, it appears that some vaunted "leaders" have taken a saw to at least one and even two legs of this three legged stool, with this result! 

Unfortunately it hasn't been an "easy fall" for hundreds of thousands of Americans and many more throughout the world who have succumbed to COVID-19.

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AN IMPORTANT RESOURCE FROM UNIVERSITY OF MINNESOTA

On May 26, 2020 I watched an excellent presentation on COVID-19 presented by the  by the Center for Infectious Disease Research and Policy (CIDRAP)  at the University of Minnesota.  
https://www.cidrap.umn.edu, and specifically the section on COVID-19: https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/covid-19  

While this specific presentation may no longer be available, all of its content and much more is online and searchable at the CIDRAP website above.

This website is so rich in information from so many experts on so many topics related to COVID-19 I could not do it justice here except to HIGHLY recommend it to medical professionals as well as lay persons.  

COVID-19 could be with us for a long time -- and information like this could be one of our most important defenses!

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